The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on personal victimisation

Abstract

This pre-registered study aimed to determine whether the COVID-19 pandemic affected the prevalence, incidence and concentration of personal victimisation in Mexico, and to examine if the impact of the pandemic on victimisation was correlated with personal characteristics. The analysis used a response-level cross-sectional panel of all existing sweeps (2010-2020) of Mexico’s national household victimisation survey to model societal growth curves for robbery, fraud, assault, sexual harassment and rape, controlling for gender, age, employment, schooling and state. The findings suggest that some crimes (e.g. robbery) declined due to the pandemic, while other crimes (e.g. fraud) increased. Moreover, the magnitude and direction of the effect was moderated by personal characteristics. Lastly, the impact of the pandemic on prevalence and concentration is discussed. This is the first study rigorously examining the impact of the pandemic on (repeat) victimisation using nationally representative surveys.